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0:00:02 – Announcer

Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines Heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street.

0:00:16 – Frank Curzio

Let’s go down there. It’s April 9th. I’m Frank Curzio. This is the Wall Street Unplugged podcast. We’re back with the headlines and I’ll tell you what’s really moving these markets. We’re getting Daniel Creech today to tell us everything that’s going on with the markets and tell you exactly exactly how to make a fortune on everything that’s going on, Daniel. What’s going on, buddy? How’s everything? Everything is great.

0:00:41 – Daniel Creech

It’s another beautiful Wednesday, Frank. Hello and happy day everybody. What’s moving these markets? Tar Wednesday, Frank, hello and happy day everybody. What’s moving these markets? Tariffs, Frank, liberation Day, China, China, retaliation China, I have to say this morning.

So I know a lot of people get upset about Trump and his personality. I feel for you, but, Frank, I literally laughed out loud this morning at the office and I couldn’t wait to talk to you about this. Trump tweeted. Did you see Trump’s tweets today? No, I didn’t see it today. If you could pull them up. Well, I don’t know, you don’t have to be a member on Truth Social, but he tweeted and he said be cool, be cool everybody, because not only is China, but now Europe is retaliating with us and our tariff back and forth. So I’m sorry, let me pull this up. So he says be cool, everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than other. Frank, when you hear be cool, what do you think of? Because I was upset. Nobody referenced on TV that I was watching the movie that I was thinking of. What do you think of? And you subscribers email me, Daniel, at crazy researchcom. What do you think of when somebody says be cool, what movie?

0:01:49 – Frank Curzio

Isn’t. Isn’t like Brad Pitt? Like Brad Pitt for some reason. Be cool, I don’t know why. What’s the movie I gotta see? But yeah, be cool, be cool. Nothing to see here.

0:02:02 – Daniel Creech

Pulp fiction. This is the family show.

0:02:03 – Frank Curzio

You’re allowed to get away with this.

0:02:05 – Daniel Creech

Yes, remember when the couple is robbing the diner and he opens that scene and says this is a robbery, be cool, yep. That’s not even the best part. The best part is when Samuel L Jackson puts him at gunpoint and tells him to tell his friend. To be cool, honey Bunny. In the midst of market chaos, everybody needs to go to YouTube or wherever on your listening device and listen to that. That scene, the entire scene, is probably six-ish minutes, Frank. You need to do that amongst volatility. That is the that’s my Dr Phil moment of the day.

0:02:36 – Frank Curzio

Who was the guy’s name, Honey Bunny? Who was saying Honey Bunny, honey Bunny, be cool, honey Bunny. Who was that?

0:02:41 – Daniel Creech

Well, that was the guy that Samuel Ross or something. Yeah, oh yeah, I don’t know, I don’t know. Yeah, I don’t know Anyway. So let’s get to something important. But be cool everybody.

0:02:50 – Frank Curzio

Be cool, everything’s going to be fine. But I tell you everything’s not fine. I mean, the shit’s really hitting the fan here, because you’re seeing a lot of things that the president was bragging about, like lower interest rates was great, okay, but now it’s going back up, okay. You have the vix at 50. Remember 30 was that benchmark when his 30, 35, that’s when you have to buy stocks and it’s 50 right now. The 10-year treasury yield is what? 4.4 percent, it was 3.9 percent, a blink of an eye, I think. What yesterday, the day before? Uh, and it’s scary because it’s there’s a lot of when you see the bond market going crazy. It’s scary because a lot of people don’t know what’s going on under the hood. This is what happened in a credit crisis, kind of COVID. When you see credit spreads and everything’s okay, you could see there’s warning signs. Now there’s warning signs that there might be something bigger.

Some of them are saying this is a basis trade. I’m hearing from my sources it’s a trillion-dollar trade that’s unwinding. When these things unwind, it sees at the markets where you own actual bonds, you’re selling the future. So if it unwinds, you’re forced to sell the bonds. And you look at the muni bond market, which looks terrible. David Faber did a good job of CNBC covering it. It’s almost like you know this forced liquidation, but when you see everything going down at the same time, that’s when you have to worry. Right, there’s really no safe haven. When you see an oil bond stocks all down and, yes, crypto has held up a little bit, gold has held up a little bit but usually when you see those factors oil, bond stocks all down at the same time, it’s like a liquidation. Something’s going on under the hood and it’s like credit crisis, covid, shit which has people worried, and shit that people worry. I mean we could see further downside here.

And one thing that gets lost, Daniel, in these tariffs is how much foreign investors own. This is what was, I believe, one of the biggest catalysts that were not talked about the last two years is our market surge and everyone’s like it’s going higher, it keeps going higher, it keeps going higher and you’re seeing a flood of money and you’re seeing government spending and stuff like that. We get it, but a lot of the 18% is a record for foreign investors. 18% of them own the US stock market, so that’s cool and US is still, even today, I think, one of the best markets to own. You might have said that a little bit before Taris, where Europe was making a comeback first time. It seems like forever. And China’s making a comeback. I’ll cover China in a minute. But when you’re looking at 2010, at 10%, 12% now I mean foreign investors, I mean at 18% that’s a very, very big number. And now you’re seeing this questioning idea and Goldman has a great note about this saying that questioning idea of US exceptionalism and saying maybe we need to reduce US equities. That could be contributing to this as well. But you’re seeing things that you normally don’t see, where you could have said, okay, the market’s down a ton, but it’s fine, right, I mean companies still spending. You’re seeing companies remove guidance a little bit, which is expected because of the uncertainties.

No one knows what the hell’s going on because Trump, depending on when he feels like tweeting, you know what’s going on. Be cool, Frank, be cool, Frank, be cool. Everything’s fine, but just be cool. I’m a child, I’m sorry. Be cool. There’s just a lot going on under the hood and it seemed funny. I don’t know if you could.

Did you catch what he said with the Dodgers? Well, because you showed me what about the introduction. He was talking about basically oh, I’m not going to introduce him. Yeah, he’s like oh and, and we got some politicians here from California and I’m not going to introduce them because I don’t like them Everyone starts laughing. You don’t like them that much? Yeah, but I don’t like them, so I’m not going to say their name or whatever. And even the Dodgers are laughing. You know he’s giving tribute to Otani and stuff like that, but it’s just, yeah, it’s crazy, it’s funny, it’s insane at the same time. Markets here, I mean, is it? Is it? Look, I’m going to be honest with you. If you have a one year plus time horizon, which is like 20 years in investing terms, now I mean that used to be obviously back then.

But now we have, you know, trading spiders on same days and stuff like options and shit, which is crazy. So everyone’s like if a company comes out and says, hey, this quarter is not going to be good, but we’re’s how quick the markets react and we have these algos. And if you want proof of the algos, holy shit, did you see the market move? Was it yesterday already? I’m losing track of this, but how the market was getting annihilated. And one rumor about Trump ending tariffs 90-day extension led to an 8% plus swing in the markets. It was the largest one-day point swing in the history of the S&P 500. Now you can look at that several ways. Josh Brown was on CNBC saying hey, you know, this is your chance to take some off the table because there’s more shit going on. But another thing is which I look at it is we’re talking about a problem that could simply be erased by a tweet, by a true social post of him saying hey, everything is cool with China right now. Everything is cool with Europe and Europe is retaliating, but it’s not as bad as it was. It’s just kind of like it’s kind of weak their response, to be honest with you. So it’s not like even Cramer was saying. It’s more of a positive on TV, and the reason why I’m watching so much of this on CNBC and Fox because you want to get the sentiment out there. It’s what everyone’s watching. That’s how you gauge the consensus and the sentiment.

But when I’m looking at this and I see that it’s a risk that could easily be taken off the table. But what is scary is we saw interest rates coming down, which is great for the overall market. Now they’re going back up and and that’s leading to more concerns. Hey, is there something more going on with the bond market? Is something underlying that we can’t see, and that’s what leads to an ultimate, you know, capitulation, market collapse. That’s what people are concerned about. That’s why we’re seeing these massive moves.

We’re up in the market right now. But it was up a lot higher. It came down yesterday, I think it was up a lot higher, or it was down, then went all the way up and it came back down again. It’s crazy, right? You don’t see that happen during normal events. If someone’s been coming to this for 30 years, you don’t see that happening. That’s not a sign of a normal market. I mean, something’s going on under the hood and that’s what’s scaring people, because nobody knows what’s going on under the hood, because a lot of shit’s going on leverage and again, let’s see how this unwinds, but, yeah, just a lot of speculation to what’s going on. But you should be concerned and if you have more than a year time horizon, I think stock’s going to be a lot higher.

But we could see more pain in the short term because, again, uncertainties, the depth of stocks we have more uncertainty than we’ve ever seen. No one knows we’re going to have five cuts, two cuts, no cuts, or if we’re going to grow tremendously into next year. I mean they’re pricing in the same percentage as all those outcomes which I’ve never seen, ever. I mean you see outcomes all right, 30, like what was that? A 15% chance of a recession? I think now Goldman might have it up to 30 or 40%. You know slightly and then you adjust, just like you know rate cuts and future rate cuts where the futures, the Fed futures, are implying. You know two rate cuts and maybe that goes to three rate cuts, maybe that goes to one, but to be pricing in the same amount of chance happening, but to be pricing in the same amount of chance happening whether it’s going to be two cuts, whether it’s going to be five cuts or maybe no cuts or growth. It just tells you.

No one knows what the F is going on, and it’s why you saw the biggest retailer in the world, walmart, remove guidance.

You saw Delta remove guidance and you’re going to see that from companies across the board. The good news is they removed guidance, Daniel, and those stocks went higher, maybe implying that, hey, delta already got cut in half. Maybe this was assumed that they were going to do this. But when you remove guidance, again, that’s more uncertainty. So how do you buy Delta not really knowing what the outcome or have an idea of what the outcome is going to be, because that’s what stocks trade on the idea of what’s going to happen in the future? Now it’s more clouded than it’s ever been and it’s going to be like over the next couple of months, which makes the markets very, very difficult to invest in. But for long-term investors, I think buying some of your favorite names in the largest stocks, like really industry leaders, at 30% discounts right now and holding them for 12, 18, 24 months or even for the next five years, I think you’re going to do very well. But uncertainty short-term is almost a guarantee here.

0:10:25 – Daniel Creech

Yes, absolutely, Frank. I shook my crystal ball and I have some stuff to explain to you and everybody else about what’s about to happen here. Being halfway facetious, no doubt, Frank, I’m rereading through this bond fiasco because we have talked about this. The tenure going was excellent and it’s good for nearly all interest rate yields, let’s say, painting with a very broad brush. And also it was literally what Trump and, more importantly, in my opinion, secretary Besset, has been saying and focused on.

Now that it’s going back up to your point, what’s going on? There’s some great articles about this blow up in the bond market going around and I hate to tell you this because I don’t have the exact answer. I’m simply telling you they are not telling us everything, and here’s a quick timeline, Frank. So yields spiked and we’re starting to see these rumors of, hey, somebody’s blowing up or what’s going on. Well, and you just explained it, hey, they’re in these treasury and swaps, and I’m still trying to figure all that out.

But the basis is this you have the same song and dance. You have a group of hedge funds it sounds like that got over leveraged. They’re 20x levered. Okay, now don’t take that out of context and just say, oh my gosh 20x levered is reports-ish blah, blah, blah. And that got severely higher, okay. So guess what? Same old song and dance, Frank, when everybody gets leveraged up and the trade goes against you, you got to head for the hills and boom, rising tide lifts all boats. When the tide goes out, you find out who’s swimming naked. The key here is I don’t think this is over, because I don’t like the timeline of how it’s just getting trickled down to us in the viewership, because you’ve had some headlines around there. And what really intrigued me, Frank, was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett went on Fox Business this morning with Maria Bartiromo, and I don’t want to exaggerate here, but when I was listening to the interview, Frank, it did not feel like Maria was asking him or pushing him towards this yields and what’s going on with the bond market.

And he came out there and said hey, some people are getting hurt and they’re worried about this. I don’t think it’s a crisis. I’m not saying he’s lying. I’m simply saying when the politicians tell you not to worry and there’s nothing to see, here, the fucking place is on fire. People, ok, and Zero Hedge, who I’m a big fan of, and they’re crazy right wingers. So take that with a grain of salt, but they have some good charts here and it’s making the rounds on the business community because, Frank, it’s getting passed around people to us, not just on zero hedge, and they just have some good stats.

The point is there’s some people that are very levered. We’ll see how this plays out, but in the short term, there is just way too much going on for you to. Anybody that’s saying, hey, this is a turning point is either lying or they’re just trying to goose their book so they can get out of a trade. It’s absolutely crazy. There’s just a lot of uncertainty and it’s humbling to say you know what? Frank, if the last couple of days didn’t humble you, then I think that you really haven’t learned anything in this market, because you’re talking about the intraday moves, delta oil, all that kind of stuff, apple being up. Well, hell, it can change. Apple was up a few seconds ago, but the big question is is this over? No, who blinks first? In my opinion, the Fed blinks first, and here’s what they’re going to do. I don’t think they cut rates first. I think they do quantitative easing. I think you can use any excuse. You want to start putting liquidity and bonds, easing the treasury yields in there. I think that’ll be a good thing and I think we’ll negotiate a lot.

The hardest thing for investors to do, including myself, right now, is you can’t take tariffs as a one and only, Frank, because they’re not part of a one and only plan. Like it or hate it, they’re trying to. They, the Trump administration, is putting together a puzzle. Tariffs are a big piece and that’s the piece they’ve led with. Then you got tax and legislation. All that I understand. I’m not saying it’s going to work. There is risk, but you can’t just take it as man. If people don’t buckle to these tariffs, what’s going to happen? Well, because we’re going to bail out farmers. There’s just so much unfolding here. Sometimes the thing is, you don’t know what’s going to happen next. These intraday moves are crazy. It’s a little bit more like gambling than trading or investing right now in the markets.

0:14:23 – Frank Curzio

Look, everybody was caught off sides because they didn’t think Trump would actually implement this stuff. And not only they didn’t think Trump would actually implement it, they didn’t think countries would fight back, because they’re really forcing themselves into not just recession. Some of these countries are going to go into depressions right, and it’s going to happen. It’s going to be that bad for them. I mean, you’re selling all your products into the US markets and a lot of your products into US markets and we’re cutting you off, right, we just want tariffs to be fair, right, reciprocal, and what’s resulting is, I mean, even us.

If you want to talk about a humble moment and I love small caps and if you look at the data, I recommended a double long ETF for the Russell Three weeks ago, two, three weeks ago, saying that, okay, and this was based on data, it wasn’t based on. Oh, I have a feeling I’m trying to catch a falling knife. It’s like every time we see the Russell over the past pretty much the past 15 to 17 years, I think it is and when they fall, it retraces 17, 20%, and you have this wide of a gap between large caps and considering that they shouldn’t be hurt as much as tariffs, because most of the business is done in the US already. I was like here’s a really good time. We’re going to see a snapback, because once Trump comes out or whatever, and they say, okay, we’re going to solve this right, you didn’t see that much. So many countries retaliating. All this being long and drawn out, I mean it really caught everyone off sides, including us. It was a humble event. I was like, holy shit, we got wrecked on that trade and I get it. And that happens because you know. So my point is, even when you’re looking at the data, you’re looking at wow. Almost every single time you look at the VIX at 35, it’s a buying opportunity. It’s fucking 50 right now. So everything gets blown out of the water. That’s why people say, oh, you know, history normally rhymes. History hasn’t rhymed. If you look at historical, any book that’s ever read, throw it in the fucking garbage.

About investments, because none of this shit’s going on. We’ve never thought we’d spend. All right, fine, you spent $3.5, $4 trillion because of COVID. You locked down everything. That’s fine. You gave people free checks, you gave payback, whatever, I get it. But at the end of 2020, all of the major industries were at all-time highs. Markets were at all-time highs. Almost every single asset class was at all-time highs. You’re looking at housing. You look at collectibles. Everything was on fire at the end of 2020. So, remember, march 2020 is when COVID really hit.

But we figured it out, unleashed this massive amount of stimulus and then what do we do after? In 2021? We unleash in the next couple of years, another 5 trillion in stimulus, which is insane. Which is insane, right? So you know, all that money flying in the market is going to go somewhere. That’s why all your friends who are, you know, cops and firemen they have two Mercedes in their fucking driveway. You’re like what’s going on here? Everybody’s rich right Now.

When you see that drying up and that coming out of the market, you can’t assume, even with Doge, that we’re not going to see the market pull back because it’s resulting in less spending. But you’re looking at these markets going wow. Normally, when this happens, this happens. It’s not the case. It hasn’t been the case for the last two, three years. And people want to look historically when this happens. Historically, it looked like the Russell was a great trade and it wasn’t. So be very, very careful. Even if you’re a trader, oh, when you hit these 200-day moving averages, it’s a good time to buy. Throw that out the window right now. I mean, there’s a lot of stuff going on in the hood that you really don’t know and we’re still trying to figure out, because when markets crash, it leads to other things.

Daniel, you hit the nail on the head when you’re looking at tariffs. It’s not just tariffs. I mean, is China going to sell treasuries? I don’t think so, and I don’t know if anyone’s paying attention to China and when I say paying attention, I’m really paying attention, because we could see a massive pullback and it could result in a huge pullback in gold prices as well. Because we’re under this notion that, oh, they’re going to sell treasuries, and I think they were at the higher peak of 1.2 trillion. Now it’s like 750 billion, and they’ve been kind of this is over the past whatever several years low in their independent. But for them to sell their treasuries, to get back to the US one, they have to put that money someplace. And where would they put it? And people are like, well, they’re going to buy gold. Gold doesn’t pay interest. You’re going to lose 4% on $750 billion, right? And not only that, they’re probably selling. If they’re selling treasuries, hey, it’s cost that piss of the USA. They need money. They need money. Now.

If you look at the China thesis, right, you have China’s government trying the hardest over the past 24 months to inflate its economy. They’ve been doing everything they possibly can cutting its reserve requirement ratio for banks, cutting its reserve repo rate, lowering mortgage rates, doing everything they’re supposed to. Quick primer lower rates help increase consumer and business spending, which leads to stronger economic growth. Stronger economic growth leads to higher stock prices. It also creates more tax revenue, which makes it easier to service debt. So if you’re looking at lower spending, doge isn’t going to solve our problem because we’re not going to be able to stop spending. We have so much spending.

It’s where we want to try to inflate this market without creating inflation, but have this economic growth, because economic growth solves everything and, Daniel, I’ve been talking about it. It’s like if you could have the shittiest continuity between a basketball team, a football team or whatever. If you’re winning, it solves everything. Everybody’s happy when you’re winning, no matter what. You’re happy when you’re winning. Once you start losing, then the shit hits the fan. So when you’re seeing all the stimulus coming in.

This is why so many pundits, including David Tepper was, like you know, I’m bullish on China, and this was from September. Because he said, listen, they just announced a bazooka right, which is, you know, putting this thing, even on steroids. That thesis has totally gone to shit after Trump unleashed tariffs. And when you look at China and that’s the growth model, like, hey, we’re doing everything we can to stimulate the economy. Now we just cut you off from selling from all your revenue Not all your revenue, but a big portion of it. So China is still a disaster. I mean, if you look at non-financial debt levels, we’re already insane Over 300% of GDP. The government is reallocating money from schools and hospitals to pay off the interest on its debt. They’re going after individuals for your back taxes.

The real estate market forget about it. People have been talking about the real estate market and saying, Frank, I know that’s priced in. Is it priced in? Is it Because, I could tell you, 10 days ago, no one really talked about this news because everyone was talking about tariff Vanki? This is a government-linked developer for China known as building China’s largest cities. They reported $6.8 billion annual loss for 2024. This just came out nine days ago, 10 days ago. So it’s the company’s first fuel-year loss since its IPO. You know when, that was Daniel 1991. This is current. This isn’t like oh, I get it, evergrande, I heard that story. No, so the reason Simulink is playing it’s not working to help prop up the real estate prices or the economy. It was working a little bit.

I mean, if you’re looking at further proof, for real estate values are still plummeting. Households in financial distress they’re being forced to sell their properties. Apartment developers are on the brink of collapse, so there’s a massive leverage. Years ago, rates are much, much lower. Now they have to refinance and can’t. So you say, okay, China’s market’s cheap, let’s get some foreign investors in here. No way, I mean private equity hedge funds. They did this 10 years ago. Most aren’t even thinking of investing. It’s because they got fucked over. I mean, the offshore creditors only received 26 cents on the dollar on average after all offshore debt restructuring that would need to take place over the past few years. This includes Evergrande Group. China’s largest property developer, defaulted on more than $300 billion in debt. A couple of years ago, country Garden, sunac two more property giants in China defaulted. This was in 2022.

So now you have these tariffs and what happens? You’re cutting off China’s bloodline for growth, which is the sole thesis of why you invest in China. I mean, it’s like you’re building this framework for a house. Okay, you see that the plywood’s going up. It’s nice, it’s size of two by four, four, it’s beautiful. But now, all of a sudden, the cement underneath is cracking. It doesn’t matter what you do or how nice that house is going to look, it’s going to fall down. I mean, it’s not going to matter, right? So that’s China right now, and you know, dan, they lower their exposure again, which they’ve done the past few years. That’s fine.

But if they sell those treasuries, where are they going to put this money? Because you’re earning a decent rate on it and people are like it’s going to go to gold. I don’t know about that. I mean it’s going to go to gold a little bit. But also, if they sell treasuries, what’s it going to do? It’s going to weaken the dollar, which will also weaken their currency relative to the dollar, and their currency is pegged against the dollar, meaning China may have to devalue its currency if they sell their treasuries, which will probably push GDP into the negative for the first time in the country’s history. So if this sounds really crazy to you, and it’s a dire circumstance. Just do me a favor Look at the one month chart of the USD against the yuan in that exchange rate. I mean it’s going to scare the shit out of you over the past month since they announced these tariffs.

But what is the thesis to invest in China right now? That’s been an absolute disaster. Totally massive leverage given a lifeline, the government stimulating okay, fine, and you saw it happen. I mean, gdp went from, you know, I think, last quarter, and they should announce their next quarter GDP I think it’s Q1 GDP, I think in the next couple of weeks. Their last quarter was 5.4%, which was very good. They have a 5% benchmark really for this year. So it’s kind of like 5% benchmark for GDP for China. It’s kind of like our benchmark for inflation of 3%, right. Higher than that, you get a little scare. Lower benchmark for inflation of 3%. Higher than that, you get a little scare. Lower than that it’s kind of good right now. It used to be 2%, it’s now 3%, but 5%. It was like an 18-year high, but now you just threw the whole thesis down, just flushed it down a toilet.

So when I look at China, what’s going to happen? I mean, treasury Secretary just came out yesterday said Chinese stocks will be removed from the US exchanges as everything’s on the table now that they’re retaliating. I mean, how can China retaliate because you’re looking at a depression scenario? So what’s the solution for them? One bend the knee you can do that many ways and sign deals under the table and claim victory. We fought against the US and we won. And they sign something under the table and they do a trade deal and everything’s fine.

The other solution, the only solution that I see, is they’re going to invade Taiwan. And that’s when the shit really hits the fan. Because how does the US respond to that, especially since China? You know, I know nobody wants to hear this, but if you look at history, they really have claimed to Taiwan, based on the Communist Party winning the decades-long conflict in 1949. They actually have claimed to Taiwan. If you look at the history, you know I’m not saying they don’t, they don’t, but they actually do How’s the US going to fight that?

I mean, is it going to be embargoes? Is it going to be, you know, is it a full-blown invasion? I mean, how does the US respond to that? I mean, it’s pretty crazy, but this is the scenarios that are on the table by China fighting us. There’s no solution for them while they fight us. So what’s going to happen?

China market, I can tell you right now China market you’re crazy being invested in that right now. I mean, the risk to it is incredible unless there’s a solution, and that market is probably going to go up faster than everyone else. So it’s very hard to play because there could be a solution in 30 seconds. If, while we’re doing this taping right now, trump decides to say his true social hey, I just talked to President Xi and we’re good, everything’s fine, we’re good, I did it, I created this, everything’s great Then China’s market’s going to explode.

But if you really think that this tariff thing is going to be long and drawn out, China is the ultimate short here because, man, their lifeline has just been taken away from them and they are sitting in massive debt. Real estate still a disaster there Again. 10 days ago, the large developer just reported its first massive loss, first loss since its IPO, first yearly loss. It’s not getting better there, it’s getting considerably worse. And look out if they continue to fight, because are we really going to remove every China-based listing, like all the stocks? They’re not going to be able to trade here. Holy shit, I mean, we’re really cutting off their lifeline.

It’s just hard to see how much they’re fighting. I get it, the communists. You want to. Everyone has an ego. You want to say it publicly. We’re fighting against the US, but at the end of the day, you know you really don’t have a lot of leverage. They don’t have a lot of leverage and they’re going to go into depression if this happens. Or you’re going to see Taiwan get invaded, because you know usually war solves everything and can act as a version. But let’s see what happens.

0:26:14 – Daniel Creech

Yeah, I wouldn’t bet on China yet. I mean, like I said, I always joke about this, they’re communists. I mean, I love how the TV and we try to portray them as you know fair trade or whatever but yeah, communism is a horrible, horrible situation. People, I’m glad you said that about the treasuries and such, because there is some fear. Hey, you know, and I’m not saying that, that’s not right to talk about and correct, and I think investors ought to brace. I don’t think we’re anywhere near close to the China-US spat because egos are too big to bend the knee Trump. Anybody could bend the knee. Is the odds that Trump will bend the knee? I think those odds are very low, president Xi, I think those odds are very low. So what happens? We continue down this path and again trying to put this puzzle together for you, bessa, in the same interview I believe you’re referencing the Maria Bartiromo as well, Frank where he did say everything’s on the table regarding unlisting some Chinese equities, and if that sounds crazy, it’s not. They just did it with the Russian ETF after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. So there’s nothing new under the sun here, people With China. Frank, or in that interview, besset mentioned a new buyer for treasuries, because Maria Bartiromo asked him hey, is China selling treasuries? That’s the big fear and passing point right now and it’s worth paying attention to.

But Besset said something very important. He said listen, and he talked about this legislation and reconciliation and the debt ceiling and the tax cuts and all this stuff that they’re doing. And he said that they are looking to change regulations, Frank, and he’s going to change the and I just escaped me, so I’m sorry to look like a fool here, but whatever it’s called that they’re going to change supplemental ratio value or something is to where the big banks can start buying treasuries and not have to offset capital to where on their book. That’s huge and that is and I’m not being a dick here that is so much bigger than huge. It’s not even funny Because, again, in fear, go ahead and email me, Danielcurzioresearchcom, if you think I’m carrying the water for anybody. I’m simply telling you the game plan, because the financial media and the mainstream media, in my opinion keeps yelling and screaming to you and me as viewers that there’s no plan, and this is just shooting from the hip.

Scott Bessett just told you there’s a plan here. Hey, we don’t give a flying Florida if China sells everything, we don’t care. We’re changing the rules and regulations here in the US that is going to allow the biggest and largest institutions to be and have an appetite, which we’ve regulated away from them. We have made it impossible or hard, or we’ve penalized banks for holding treasuries, and when I say penalized, it means because they have to put capital aside to protect that on their balance sheets. That’s what I’m saying, and if you remove that, you will in fact see Treasury holdings go up at big banks. If for nothing else, as Frank just said, behind the deals, because we’re not let in on everything.

I hate to break that to you, but guess what? If you don’t think somebody in the administration is going to go to Wall Street and the best bankster, jp Morgan, jamie Dimon and everybody else, and say, hey, go load up on treasuries because we just changed regulation. If you don’t think that that happens, I simply agree to disagree. We’ll see the way it happens, but the point is is that there is more to the plan than what may seem to be, and the regulations are a huge thing.

Yeah, we have to wait for it. So asset prices are going to bounce around and again, it’s just, it’s crazy volatile. However, continue listening here, because that’s the most important thing. But number two, this is the most transparent administration we’ve had in a long time. Go listen to them. If you’re interested, double the speed up or times one and a half, but listen to Besset and these guys telling you what they’re planning on doing and then navigate around that. So nowhere near done on the China-US trade, in my opinion. I hope I’m wrong, but it’s going to get much, much crazier from here and just grind trade to a slow stop. Excuse me.

0:30:04 – Frank Curzio

Yeah, and you know, when it comes to gold and is buying going to come from China, look, they have to pay their debt. Right, the government’s already stimulated the economy, and I saw Peter Schiff talk about this. Oh, you know, they’re going to sell treasuries and put in the gold. They’re selling treasuries not to buy another asset, but to pay their bills and to pay down their debt. That’s what they need to do, especially since growth has come to a crawl. It’s going to come to a halt almost for them. So, you know, are they going to take out 700? Again, they wouldn’t do it at one time. Slow draw for a while.

But for those that think they just go, you know the fact that currency is pegged to the US and it’s going to hurt them. You’re going to shoot them in the foot. Yes, they could see a slowdown in that, but it just doesn’t make sense. And to assume that that’s going to go into gold and which pays no interest, you know, and some of it has been going to gold, you know, but it’s just, it’s just crazy. So would. When China needs money, what are they going to do? They’re going to be forced to sell their assets, which is treasuries and gold, and I can tell you, if there’s a print that comes out that China sold gold, it’s going to go to like 2,800, 2,700. It’s over 3,000. Still it’s almost 3,100. It’s closing in on its highs. Its highs were like 3,150, 3,175 around there. But if there’s a headline that comes out that says China’s selling gold, you’re going to know why. Because they’re broke and they have no money and the government has already stimulated as much as they possibly can. They can keep going and going and going, but eventually they’re in a deflationary environment and people aren’t going to buy shit if they think price are going to keep coming down. That’s the way it is. And price keep coming of inventory and some of that’s timely. Yeah, they sell toys and shit like that and whatever that can stay on shelves forever. But some of it’s probably timely that you’re saying, okay, this shit’s sitting in barges right now and, yes, you know, we shipped as much as we possibly can to get ahead of the tariffs. But what about? Like the next couple months just keeps going. Which China wants that to happen by by retaliatory right. You’re just going after and saying, hey, we’re gonna raise tariffs on you. Gotta keep raising tech. They’re not in position to do that, whether they like it or not. But it is a crazy market and, again, a lot of this stuff could be erased.

One of the biggest, one of the companies at the most risk when it comes to China tariffs specifically, because I think, when it comes to Mexico I think he said there’s 70, I think the administration said there’s 70 countries talking to them right now, and I’m sure Canada is going to be okay. I’m sure Mexico, mexico has been doing the best job because you know the president’s been like, okay, whatever we need to do, and it’s been fine with Mexico and I’m sure we’re going to get that way with Canada. But China is, you know, you don biggest uncertainty right now. Even Europe, and they retaliated, but not really. They’re not in a position to really retaliate. Either it’s not like we buy a lot of goods from them or they buy a lot of goods from us.

When I look at China, the biggest company at risk is Apple. You’re seeing Apple come down a ton. I have to tell you, I’ve been doing analysis on Apple. By the way, they were the largest company in the world. Now it’s Microsoft. Again, Microsoft is the largest market cap in the world.

I could tell you something about Apple. I don’t know if it’s price and the stock has come down. What I could tell you is their estimates are way too freaking high. I mean there’s 38 sell side analysts that cover this stock. Only eight have lowered estimates in the past 30 days, in the past 30 days since tariffs, since these things have been announced.

So you’re looking at 2025 earnings per share consensus of $7.25. That implies 8% growth year over year. There’s no way. I mean there’s analysts out there and people who are very in the know saying that their numbers could be impacted by $1.50 from where it is right now. If that’s the case, Apple is extremely expensive here. They’re not really pricing it in. They’re hoping, hey, this shit’s going to end and we’re going to be fine.

But I can tell you, nobody’s pricing in Apple. I mean, forget about $7.25, but at $6 or under $6, you’re seeing a massive slowdown and we’ve already seen a company that’s having trouble selling iphones right now because you’re really not changing any of it and you just lie to the public. And if you go into all these stores t-mobile, AT&T it’s going to say apple intelligence, which is full of shit for the iphone 16. Right, they actually they probably didn’t lie to you on purpose. You know they really thought they’d have something. They’re like oh, we’re going to push that out to 20. It means everyone that just bought this phone was expecting, you know, all your AI features. You’re not going to get it right, so that’s going to result in a slowdown. Plus, you lose credibility, which Apple. I don’t think that’s happened to Apple over the past 10, 15 years.

It’s one of the best consumer-related companies which you get exactly what you pay for. No one gets an iPhone and say, holy shit, I can’t believe it was $1,200, $1,400. You get what you pay for. Customer service is great. If you ever have something where you subscribe to an app and they automatically charge you. It’s kind of like Amazon. You get something and you don’t like it. You can say I don’t like it. They’re like okay, just send it back right away. Here you go, it’s very easy. I mean Apple’s, all these.

You know and you know there’s no difference in this phone other than the Apple intelligence from the previous phones, which is why they don’t need to come out with a phone every year. We know why they do because it makes more profits for them. It’s not for the consumer, of course. No-transcript, it’s an antique. Well, it’s getting to the point where not everything updates. I need a new phone soon. I think that stopped. Yeah, I think it’s at the 10 right now. It’s things stop updating is pretty crazy. But uh, I could tell you what apple? Right now it’s their 725. You know that’s the actual earnings estimate. They’re expected in 2025 and it’s over eight dollars. In 2026.

They have to come down and this is based on them reducing their share count by almost five percent due to buybacks. So you know which they buy back. They generate, you know, tens of billions of free cash flow. Buy back a lot more stock. After it drops 25, I know, and that’s something the question too, because all these companies how much stock did the big seven, the mag, seven companies buy back which look like great buys, they look like fantastic buys. Now they’re down 30%. How much did these companies buy back? And that’s why I was looking at GM saying, listen, these guys bought back a hell of a lot of stock over 50. Stock over 50.

And now this thing with everything going on with tariffs, forget about earnings being like it’s trading at four times, five times earnings. It doesn’t matter if you’re trading at two times earnings compared to the S&P trading at 19 times forward earnings, because if your earnings are going down, it’s a value trap, which that’s what you’re seeing with autos and you’re looking at autos with Ford and GM. Again, more estimates they need to come down. Finally, cutting estimates, downgrading these names Bernstein today downgraded four to a sell, targolo to seven, and they said it’s a significant downside, not priced into the market yet. Yet Cramer come out today and say four, it’s a value trap. Yeah, it’s a value trap, really. Come on, Jim. Anyway, just something we were talking about Better.

0:36:56 – Daniel Creech

is Black Friday comedy made or black Monday comedy made on Friday? Oh, did he? What’d he say? He teased on Friday last week, so markets are crashing. He teased that we were setting up, not teased as in funny. He was being serious. He was on his fucking rant excuse me, florida rant and he said we’re setting ourselves up for a black Monday, which is the least valuable thing you could do, which is why I went to X and put a tweet about there, about how he’s the biggest blowhard in financial media. I jumping on the panic wagon when you’re on tv and you’re a big personality. It was beyond pathetic. Beyond pathetic. Jim, Jimmy, Jimmy Cramer,Jjim is very emotional during down.

0:37:29 – Frank Curzio

No shit, he’s the biggest parable ever as something that worked for him and it’s good because he’s an optimist. Right, and listen, he’s been on the max seven companies longer than anyone else you know and, um, he’s been right on a lot of things. I know people you know rip him apart because he talks about a lot of stuff and everything. It’s easy to point so many things when you’re talking about literally thousands of stocks every single month and I’m not even joking because we had to analyze and look at that.

When barons went to review his performance when I used to work there in 2010 11 uh, it’s not 9 and 10, but you know it was we went back and saw how many stocks he talks about. It was over a thousand stocks, right, a thousand different companies. You’re going to be wrong on a lot of them. So, yeah, you’re going to be right sometimes too, but he gets incredible like he’s the ultimate contrarian, I think, when he comes out. So you know, when he gets extremely, extremely, extremely bearish, he’s only bearish. I don’t think I’ve seen him bearish longer than like a week or two. Since I’ve known him since 20 years, I’ve never seen that just because he’s the ultimate optimist, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. It’s not a bad thing.

0:38:32 – Daniel Creech

This has nothing to do with optimism. This was just being headline grab him and this is just piling on and trying to get clicks and stuff which, hey, we’re all in that game. I get it, but yeah, just invaluable as possible, the most invaluable advice you could give. Let’s say that, nice, I love it.

0:38:50 – Frank Curzio

I love it. So we’re looking at companies, especially Delta. Delta removed its guidance and said you know, hey, we don’t know what’s going on and we’re just starting earnings season. We just started earnings season, okay, we just started earnings season, okay, the bank’s going to report pretty soon, right? So are they reporting this week and next week, right Friday? So you can see the bank’s reporting and you know all these companies are going to report. And now what these companies did, especially with Walmart. What happened with Walmart? Let’s see right here, Cause Walmart came out and said look, um, you’re doing an investor day, sorry.

Yeah they’re doing. Look, we’ve been through this shit, we know how to handle it.

And they’re like we know how to handle it, you know, we’re just going to squeeze all of our suppliers. You know, like Amazon, when you’re the biggest company in the world, they’re like, hey, you know what, those margins, you’re not going to have them anymore, buddy, sorry, you know. And they’re like well, I don’t know, you’re going to lose your biggest partner when you’re a Walmart, when you’re a Costco, when you’re an Amazon. And those companies know what they’re doing because they’ve been through this already. A lot of companies haven’t been through this already. It’s why some of the companies there’s a reason why, if you’re looking at technology companies that have the strongest balance sheets in the world is because they’ve been through the dot-com crisis and came this close. The ones that survived this close the Netflix, the Microsofts, the Apples this close to being done, because they were so leveraged. They thought like, oh my God, this growth is going to happen forever. It’s great.

And then you had this three-year drawn out crash when NASDAQ fell 80% over a two and a half year period. Imagine that Now things fall 35% in three days. It’s different. We have different markets and they rebound right away. We saw COVID 34% drawdown in a month and then, oh, that’s the bottom right. So we have these massive sell-offs and maybe that’s triggered by algorithms, but usually these steep sell-offs if you’re looking in the past steep sell-offs like this if you look a year later, almost every single time stocks are higher Doesn’t mean that that’s going to happen.

But I can tell you this right now has been one of the greatest times to invest, where you miss so many companies and so many large caps, where everyone wants to take on risk. The richest people want to take on even more risk. That’s based on my experience, where they love taking on the risk in private companies and going all in and trying to become nine times richer than they currently are. You don’t need to take on extra risk of trying to find the greatest small caps, which I’ve done all my life, which I’m doing right now, because when you see large caps down 30%, when you see NVIDIA with the company that they reported the numbers they reported last quarter and that stock has gotten annihilated. When you see companies like Johnson Johnson where it’s trading at. When you see companies like the Philip Morris is trading at, we see companies McDonald’s has held up pretty well, but you’re able to buy some of the best of breed names and you could get returns of 30% over the next 12 months.

I mean, I would put together and maybe we’ll do that, Daniel, especially for premium members put together 10 stocks that you would own right now. The industry leaders that are down tremendously, and they’re not down because their numbers are horrible. They’re down because of this huge uncertainty, because there’s a lot of forced selling going on in the market and that’s when you want to buy. So the greatest investors, even Warren Buffett, I could tell you that’s another catalyst that no one’s talking about how much do they have in their balance sheet? Was it 300 and something billion on their balance sheet? Yeah, it was 300.

Well, last I knew it was 300.

I mean you didn’t like anything, but you got to like a lot of shit. Right now, if you’re Warren Buffett, I mean his managers have to be, like, you know, holy cow. I mean they could dictate the terms. They can get warrants on anything they want. By financing companies, I mean companies that are struggling right now. Imagine the lifelong you would get if you invested in Ford or GM right now. I mean you would say, well, you know and again, not that I want you to invest in Ford and GM, but if Buffett comes in, he’s not going to come in as an investment like you, and I would come in and say I’m buying the stock here. No, no, no, no, no. He doesn’t do that, not with Goldman Sachs. During a credit crisis, he’s like give me a shitload of warrants. He’s going to lower his risk to basically zero. He’s going to be a bottom in a stock like that and he has the money to do that.

We’re not talking about those cows, but they got to be foaming at the mouth saying, okay, now it’s time to buy some shit. I mean because the market has come down, some names have come down. He’s been pretty bullish on oil. It’s in the 50s right now. Oil, holy shit. You want to talk about something that we definitely didn’t see coming, making me look bad. We didn’t see coming, right, holy shit. So you know, in the 50s. So there’s going to be lots of stocks and lots of names that they’re looking to buy. And you know one thing’s for certain is the companies that are getting hit. I was talking about Walmart. Walmart removed their guidance and Delta removed their guidance, and what’s happening with those stocks right now? So when I look at let’s look at Delta first, and this is right now doing this midday it is up almost 7%. So we have Delta up almost 7% after removing guidance, saying we have no idea what’s going to happen in the future. And it’s up Now but like you said it’s also down 50%.

Why? So that’s when you got to look at the expectations, right, because if you look at it, it was almost $70 a share, right, and it was $70 a share not long ago. I don’t think right. So you don’t have to go back for the year, you have to go back to February. Holy shit. Is that right? Holy cow, february was $70. Everything was higher this year, january.

0:43:53 – Daniel Creech

February was higher.

0:43:54 – Frank Curzio

I just thought like if February was like I didn’t know, I thought less than just two months ago.

0:44:01 – Daniel Creech

No, Frank, it just seems like last week was a month ago.

0:44:03 – Frank Curzio

But still you have that uncertainty. And then you have Walmart come out and say, hey, we’re removing operator guidance for next quarter and that stock’s up 4%. So what you’re seeing right now is what I love, guys is you’re heading into earnings season, where companies basically got to remove that guidance and the risk is almost priced in. It’s worth buying the stocks, especially industry leaders, that have been cut by 30%, 40%, 50%, and I would be betting on short-term price movements that things are going to go higher when they report. I wouldn’t be doing the banks. The banks haven’t got hit as hard and their earnings are going to be great because interest rates are staying higher for longer.

These guys make a fortune. I mean just the top four banks over $100 billion in profits last quarter. I mean not profits in revenue. Last quarter I think it was over $30 billion in profits. They’re massive. They talk a game like oh my God, the economy is cracking. They make a freaking fortune, an absolute fortune in four largest banks and it can never be penetrated because of the laws. No-transcript. The bigger you get, the more you get punished, the more the capital ratio is increased and you get fucked. That’s what New York Community Banks are. So when I’m looking at companies going into this quarter, expectations are that freaking low where you can remove your guidance and your stock’s going to go up. I mean you’re seeing little downside risk. If you’re seeing companies reporting, it could give you an opportunity for short-term trades and say, look, you know if I mean what’s worse, dean, you tell me what’s worse than removing your guidance, other than saying that you have to restate your financials.

0:45:41 – Daniel Creech

Negative guidance.

0:45:42 – Frank Curzio

Yeah, there’s nothing worse than that. There’s nothing worse. It’s not negative guidance, it’s not even negative.

0:45:45 – Daniel Creech

We’re delaying Our accounting firm resigned and we’re delaying our filings.

0:45:49 – Frank Curzio

We’re delaying our filings and we have no idea. Our financials for the past 10 years are unreliable and we have no idea what’s going on and we just let go of the CEO that it’s removing your guidance. You’re just telling me two companies removed their guidance and their stocks are higher. What’s the risk?

0:46:05 – Daniel Creech

going forward. I think everybody’s pricing in Anybody that gives guidance is just silly, unless you have great guidance, because there’s no risk reward, there’s no benefit. You’re right, I agree with that.

0:46:12 – Frank Curzio

There’s no benefit. I’m just saying like if that risk is really priced in, then you know. Yeah, it sets up for good opportunities.

What happens if the company does offer positive guidance to say, hey, this is what we did, Like, that’s what Walmart actually it’s not just to remove their guidance, but they said, hey, we’ve been through this, you know we have our steps that we need to take, that we know we need to take to, pretty much, you know, mitigate the damage from these tariffs. This is what the biggest companies do. They see this coming. They’re able to adjust. I mean Walmart you’re talking about during COVID, Do you that they had the biggest drop that they’ve seen in a company stock? I don’t want to. I don’t know if it’s history or if it’s like 20, 30 years. They had a massive amount of inventory. You know how long it took them to clear off their inventory.

0:46:50 – Daniel Creech

Well, no, not One quarter. Well, they were the only ones allowed to open One quarter. Talk about picking. Yeah, I get it, but holy cow.

0:46:57 – Frank Curzio

No, no-transcript. But you took about one month and, yes, they got the lifeline and we recommended the five companies that got the lifelines, whatever it was Costco, target and during COVID, like early COVID, and we did well on those names Walmart, god, home Depot what a fucking joke. We’re going to close all of my pop stores but we’re going to let five stores stay open. It’s so great the way they did that. But when it comes to Walmart, one quarter it took them to get rid of their inventory. Target, it took a year and a half. Nike still has inventory problems.

I mean, you’re looking at companies. So when you’re looking at these big guys and how quick they could adjust to this, it’s pretty amazing. I don’t know If you’re looking at Walmart, you’re looking at Costco’s. If you really want to go to retail, you go to Amazon’s. Those are three companies that make a lot of sense.

This is some of the things we’re looking at right now. One a trading opportunity to be able to buy stocks into earnings. Because if they’re removing their guidance which is the worst thing you could possibly say and the company’s going up on that, what’s your risk? Because your upside is tremendous If they report really good numbers and say, hey, we’ve been monitoring this, we knew this was going to happen and we removed this. We don’t really have that much exposure as you think to tariffs and overseas shit and our numbers are up and they’re raising guidance. You’re going to see a company pop 20% on that news, probably within a half an hour after their report, maybe minutes after their report.

Probably a good way to play this market, I think, especially since you’re taking a lot of risk off the table, with Walmart and Delta removing their guidance and going up today, which is pretty crazy. Again, crazy earnings coming out too. So, yep, crazy, crazy, crazy, crazy. So what else do we have going on in the markets today other than the markets? I know that we have, um, a huge event which is called the masters. That’s not today, it’s tomorrow. I can’t wait for the masters. Mess is so cool, that is exciting, it’s awesome. And what are you doing? You’re traveling, right, are you traveling?

0:48:56 – Daniel Creech

yes, I leave for vegas tomorrow evening. Markets always crash when we travel. I guess I haven’t traveled that much. But yeah, I go to Vegas tomorrow night and then I’m there for a concert on Saturday, then I’m back Sunday.

0:49:07 – Frank Curzio

What concert the.

0:49:08 – Daniel Creech

Eagles. The Eagles that’s awesome and I’m excited at the Sphere, very excited about that. Yeah, it’s a really good night, but I don’t leave until tomorrow evening, so I’m excited about Wall Street Unplugged. Premium Dollar Stock Club subscribers will get an update a little early. We’ve got a lot to do and navigate. But yeah, then I am excited to head out to Vegas. I get there tomorrow night at midnight Vegas time, so that should be like then, that when everything starts going. So I’ll just hit the strip and check my laptop Friday morning.

0:49:35 – Frank Curzio

No, I know that’s cool, that’s cool, so listen. So, guys, the playbook is we’re looking at stocks that are down tremendously. Right, we have a good short-term opportunity, since a lot of that risk we feel like is already priced in some of these names. With Delta down 50% off its highs and saying they removed guidance. But, more importantly, what are names that are going to see that earnings power that are going to be able to grow earnings that are down tremendously? They reported good numbers last quarter.

You don’t really have to take the risk of buying all these crazy companies in small caps and stuff like that. When you have the largest companies in the world trading at a significant discount, they can provide you 15-20% returns in 12 months. I think a lot of these stocks can. I would say there’s a good 20-25 that can. That I’ve been looking at. It makes a lot of sense. And also be aware I’m not telling you this short Apple, I’m just saying they have tremendous risk. But the companies with the most risk from tariffs and we cited them If you’re looking at, especially with China, if you’re looking at Starbucks, you’re looking at Nike, you’re looking at Apple as well Levi’s has a lot of exposure there.

Companies have a lot of exposure to autos and stuff like that. If you solve or if you come up with a solution to the tariffs, these are the names that are going to absolutely take off. So be careful if you’re shorting them. If you really believe okay, if you have a feeling, if you have a contact, if you know again, it’s very difficult to forecast the future, obviously, but if you really believe okay, this tariff thing is going to end in a month from now.

Apple’s probably the one you want to buy, starbucks is the one you’re going to buy, especially if you believe that something’s going to happen with China or an ounce is going to be made and they’re going to say, okay, hey, we worked out a deal with China, and there’s so many ways you could work out deals with China. There’s so many ways the US could work out deals with China and China could say, hey, we’re going to give you rare earths for cheaper prices or whatever, whatever. There’s just so much. There’s just so many things on the that you could do to just say, okay, we’re going to get along. If that happens, the ones with the most exposure that have gone down the most these things are going to absolutely take off and just be careful shorting them or if you want to take a chance on them, it might be worth it considering a lot of the risk.

Again, when you’re looking at JetBlue and JetBlue God JetBlue I hate that company. I don’t know why I said JetBlue. If you’re looking at Delta and if you’re looking at Walmart, get pricing. At that risk of removing that guidance. It definitely provides a huge opportunity for you. So that’s what we’re really looking at right now.

0:51:49 – Daniel Creech

Yeah, there’ll be plenty of volatility and opportunities for traders, but I just think they’re going to be very short-term trades until we get more clarity.

0:51:56 – Frank Curzio

Definitely more clarity, and even I’m going to really really start digging into oil companies started picking away. We got some oil exposure and stuff in some of these names. We’ve done well in. They pull back a little bit. But man, I would think oil right now and a lot of these companies at $58 a barrel, I don’t think like the larger companies have to be looking at some of the other companies to really take over. They always do.

If you’re looking at Exxons, you’re looking at Chevrons, what do they do Whenever they see this pullback? I mean no one really saw the 50s coming. We definitely didn’t see the 50s coming, but who knows? I mean there could be a forehandle on this. If you see that these guys are always great at purchasing assets at dirt cheap prices, they wait for this. They wait for this every five years, 10 years. I mean it used to happen every like four or five years. Now it happens every 10, 12 years. I mean COVID was the last time it happened. Before that it was 2011, 10, right. So they’re looking for those assets as well.

Again trying to find pockets of growth that work. I think gold is going to work as long as you don’t see a headline saying China’s selling gold because they may have to sell gold, they may have to sell their treasuries, and it’s not to go into other assets, or vice versa, selling treasuries again to gold. They have to pay the fucking bills and they just got their growth totally shut off, which is their whole entire thesis. So I don’t know how any hedge fund can own China right now, because their thesis was based on this massive stimulus plan that’s going to lead to huge economic growth. Now, Goldman Sachs, they’re not raising their growth estimates for the year. For GDP, it’s 4.5%. If it’s below 5%, that’s very, very bad. That’s the benchmark. Last quarter it was 5.4%. That’s why China took off and started going higher. Now you’re taking that off the table.

Be very, very, very careful with China. If they continue to fight, they’re at the highest risk of going into depression to the point where they might see negative GDP. If they continue to fight us for longer than three months, it would be an absolute disaster, because they’re already in a disaster. It’s already horrible there for you to remove all that growth and cut off their revenue. It’s almost like you’re locked down China. It’s like China’s in a lockdown right now. That’s how crazy it is. So let’s see what happens. Yes, they have other outlets to sell some of their goods and services to other countries, but it’s not like they do when they sell to the US. That’s why they have such a great surplus, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out next couple of days, next couple of weeks. But we’ll be here for you. You can email us at any time. Again, difficult times, but you want to try to find opportunities, especially when asset price are 20, 30% lower than they were just a month ago. That provides you a good opportunity. So, Daniel, questions comments.

0:54:18 – Daniel Creech

Be cool. Daniel@cruzioresearch.com, you’d love that. Be cool, I do. I’m a child. I’m going to fucking say that forever Be cool.

0:54:25 – Frank Curzio

Quasar to Congress for an email. I’m here too, Frank@cruzioresearch.com. As always, we’ll talk to you guys actually tomorrow for our premium Wall Street Unplugged premium services. We’ll see you then. Take care, love this episode. Wall Street Unplugged Premium. The Wall Street Unplugged Premium is my members-only podcast where I dive even deeper into this week’s events. Well, I’ll do even more than tell you what’s moving these markets. I’ll tell you specifically what moves you can make today. So this is going to be about trading. Put big money in your pocket right away due to the inconsistencies I see daily in the market.

I’m talking about specific investment ideas. I’m recommending and tracking each week that I believe will be impacted directly by everything I just talked about today. Plus, you’re going to get the chance to go even further down the rabbit hole with me and my co-host, who’s Daniel Creech, as we discuss which of these week’s trends could turn into massive windfalls the big trends that we see lurking on the horizon. Also, the news we’re picking up from our network of insiders, which has gotten bigger and bigger thanks to you and so many people listening to this podcast in over 100 countries. And you’ll get a chance to talk to me directly in my special Ask Me Anything Q&A session. All that and a lot more like premium interviews with world leaders in finance, technology, industry and politics. This is all part of Wall Street Unplugged Premium and becoming a member is super simple and super cheap, so head on over to WSUoffer.com to check it all out. Sign up today and you won’t miss a thing. That’s WSUoffer.com.

0:56:04 – Announcer

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