Luke Downey
By Luke DowneyDecember 21, 2020

How to stack the odds in your portfolio’s favor

I often get asked about the stocks I like. 

Most of the questions are geared towards the hottest stocks right now. Rarely are people curious about long-term holds for their portfolio.

And that got me thinking…

Most new investors are attracted to the trading game by the allure of catching a “big win.” After all, it feels good to win, right?

I’ll give you a little insight into how I’ve caught some big winners… and losers—and why the latter usually don’t matter…

A few winners make all the difference

Investing isn’t a one-and-done type of hobby. You see, you always have an opportunity to change your mind on a dime. Simply put, you’re in control of your investments. 

And while some new traders will try their hand one stock at a time… building a portfolio stacks the odds in your favor with a multi-year time frame.

I’ve had the opportunity to build multiple portfolios over my career. Most people who know me know that I don’t like to sell… I guess you can say that I like to collect stocks.

After buying and holding dozens of stocks for many years, there tends to be a theme that plays out over time. Let’s assume an investor holds 20–30 stocks. 

The return profile usually goes like this:

  • Most stocks will be average performers
  • A few stocks will be mega winners
  • A few stocks will be large losers

Now, those bullets may seem like a zero-sum game—meaning the end result will be basically zero for most investors. But that shouldn’t be the case if you’re serious about making money. 

When people shop for a large purchase, like a dishwasher, they can spend weeks on research. Spending over $1,000 tends to get people to focus! Shouldn’t the same go for stocks? 

So, if you spend a good portion of time sizing up companies—researching sales trends, earnings trends, etc.—the odds are good you’ll get a few great stocks in your portfolio.

Like I said, some stocks will be average, others will be big winners, and a few will be losers. But remember, the most you can lose on a long stock position is 100%. The stock can’t go below zero.

It’s the big winners that can theoretically go up an infinite amount. When you have a well thought-out portfolio, the winners will take care of the losers… and more.

The bottom line is this: Take the time to do some research. Don’t go all in on one stock. Diversify and look for quality businesses. You won’t get it perfect, so expect some losers. But that’s only part of the story. 

It only takes a few big winners to more than make up for the losses. And that’s what you should play for.

Luke Downey
Luke Downey is editor of Curzio's The Big Money Report, which recommends the best long-term growth stocks. Luke honed his strategy over many years at Wall Street institutional derivatives desks, and as co-founder of investment research firm Mapsignals. Luke is also an options instructor with Investopedia Academy.
What’s really moving these markets?
Subscribe to access daily market updates and exclusive content
More about Portfolio Management

Not all buybacks are created equal

Generally, when a company buys back its stock, it's great news for investors… But not all buybacks are created equal. Helen of Troy is the perfect example. Here's how you can distinguish between good and bad buybacks.

The uranium bull market is back on

Inflation is cooling—so why are stocks falling? … Rate cuts are coming in 2024… Forget earnings—focus on this… Get bullish on gold and Bitcoin… And how to profit from uranium, government spending, and record travel demand.

Electric vehicles

Is Tesla a meme stock?

You must be cautious this earnings season… Is Tesla a meme stock? … Not all buybacks are created equal… Has Biden reassured voters? … Should you buy the dip in Bitcoin? … And what Intuit's latest move says about AI.

Rick Rule, Sprott Global Resource Investments

Rick Rule: Precious metals are poised to explode

Legendary investor Rick Rule breaks down the underperformance in gold stocks… How government debt impacts individuals… Why precious metals could explode higher… Gold vs. gold stocks… How many stocks to own… And his take on Bitcoin.

More from Luke Downey
Recession planning

This sector wins during a recession

Folks are worried a recession is right around the corner. Luke explains why healthcare stocks typically outperform the rest of the market during a tough economy... and shares a simple way to get broad exposure to the entire sector.

interest rate rise

Buy this sector as interest rates rise

Rising interest rates tend to hurt the value of stocks and bonds. But one industry earns bigger profits as rates go up. And there's an easy way for investors to gain exposure to this specific group of stocks.